The educational structure and the size of SF market in the USA

From the data list below, we can conclude that the percentage of high education population who are older than 25 in America has steadily increased year by year without acute fluctuation after 1940. America is such a stable socioty that many things in a person's life can be predicted.

There is a hypothesis that the more years a person received education, the more probability a person continue to appreciates science fiction and science documentary when he grows up. Of course, the science fiction and science documentary I just mentioned is not the kind of naive stories for children but the kind of senior fictions such as the Matrix series.

Why the Discovery Channel can survive in America? Because there are so many adults accepting high education and they are still SF lovers when they are adults.Also, they have the ability to pay. So the size of Science Fiction market is large enough to sustain a SF TV Channel. In 2007, the percentage of high education population is 54.1%. We can image how large the size of Science Fiction market is in the USA.

But in today's China, if an adult still reads SF, the others will think that he is very naive and won't have a good future. In here, the percentage of high education population is below 7.5 and the most popular SF writer Liu Cixin just can't live on SF writings. So in near future there won't be Chinese SF masters such as Isaac Asimov, Arthur C.Clarke, Vernor Vinge and so on. Because the size of the market is not large enough to give high-priced reward to attract genuine talents into this field. Even if they really have passion for it, they have to abandon it for the sake of living.

Fortunately,the percentage of high education population is increasing rapidly and the adult SF lovers can contact with each other on the internet to find people with similar interests.The popularity of blogs generates numerous fresh SF writers and the SF culture has emerged in China.So the future of the Chinese SF creation can be bright.

The percentage of high education population who are older than 25 in America:

..Year Percentage
..2007 54.1%
..2006 53.7%
..2005 53.0%
..2004 53.1%
..2003 52.5%
..2002 52.0%
..2001 51.8%
..2000 51.0%
..1999 50.1%
..1998 49.1%
..1997 48.3%
..1996 48.1%
..1995 47.8%
..1994 46.5%
..1993 44.9%
..1992 43.4%
..1991 39.8%
..1990 39.2%
..1989 38.4%
..1988 37.3%
..1987 37.0%
..1986 36.3%
..1985 35.7%
..1984 34.9%
..1983 34.4%
..1982 33.0%
..1981 32.1%
..1980 31.9%
..1979 31.1%
..1978 29.8%
..1977 28.9%
..1976 27.7%
..1975 26.3%
..1974 25.2%
..1973 24.0%
..1972 22.9%
..1971 22.1%
..1970 21.2%
..1969 20.5%
..1968 20.1%
..1967 19.5%
..1966 18.7%
..1965 18.3%
..1964 18.0%
..1962 18.1%
..1960 16.5%
..1959 16.0%
..1957 14.8%
..1952 14.5%
..1950 13.2%
..1947 12.1%
..1940 10.0%

The Chinese edition of this article is here:
http://www.qixianglu.cn/626567.html

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English edition of Forcode's Fantasy

This blog is an English edition of my fantasy.I have a Chinese science fiction and fantasy blog here.In order to improve my English expression and increase the number of my readers ,I decide to translate the most wonderful materials into English.If you want to subscribe to this blog,pleased click here:http://feeds.feedburner.com/forcodefantasy

The Chinese edition:
http://www.qixianglu.cn
Subscribe to the Chinese edition:
http://feed.feedsky.com/woodphone